If you don’t have a caffeine addiction, you’re in luck. A morning cup of coffee may be hard to come by in the late 21st century.
Given ongoing climate change trends, by 2050, up to 88% of coffee farmland in Latin America could no longer be suitable for cultivation. This is considerable given that Latin America produces most of the world’s coffee.
Coffee production relies predominantly on two coffee species of the 124 known to scientists. This limits existing genetic diversity and places farmers in a vulnerable position because it makes it more difficult for breeders to introduce new traits like drought resistance. It also makes it challenging for the coffee industry to survive when a stressor like high heat arrives because all plant populations are similar, and therefore equally susceptible.
But challenges are also opportunities for change. The technology to facilitate change exists already.
The solution to these challenges is likely going to come from an unlikely source: genetic modification (GM).
Coffee seems like a luxury rather than a necessity. Unlike other staple crops like wheat and rice, coffee has no calories, and therefore gets less attention from scientists and breeders. But this should certainly change going forward if one considers current solutions at the hands of stakeholders.
Agroforestry is one approach to building climate resilience in the coffee industry. It refers to increasing shading and coverage such that crops are shielded from heat and light. Coffee bags with stickers showing “Rainforest Alliance Certified” are products of agroforestry. However, in a volatile price market, farmers have little means to care for more crops on their farmland.
There is another approach that needs more attention. Genetic technologies have been helpful in agriculture. In the past, plant genetics mostly involved cross-breeding plants to generate offspring with desirable traits. The National Agricultural Laboratories in Kenya (formerly Scott Agricultural Laboratories) have produced some of the most famous coffee cultivars from Africa, such as SL28 and SL34, and are recognized for top notch taste and drought resistance.
Modern genetic approaches accelerate the process of acquiring desirable cultivars through allowing scientists to precisely edit an organism’s genes. However, these approaches have raised concerns about impacts on human health and the environment. It’s important to emphasize that comprehensive studies from many research groups have concluded that genetically modified foods do not pose greater risk to human health. Ecological implications could certainly be evaluated on a case-by-case basis. Perhaps in some cases, the potential ecological harm warrants limiting GM technology, but it would be wrong to altogether resist GM by lumping human and environmental health implications together.
Genetic tools are especially useful for the coffee industry because coffee cultivation is labor intensive. Many coffee farms sit on hills, making mechanization difficult. This means that growers are limited in their ability to divert labor and resources to practice agroforestry or polyculture on their farms, both of which can contribute to resilience. Moreover, the volatility of coffee prices means that labor availability fluctuates. When prices are down and revenues are reduced, small landowners may find it more difficult to find workers as people migrate in search of better-paying opportunities elsewhere.
Genetic tools can hasten adaptation, reduce fertilizer and pesticide use, and lessen farmers’ vulnerability to climate change. These realities make approaches in plant genetics crucial to supporting the coffee industry in face of climate change. Before searching for that NON-GMO Project Verified sticker in the grocery store aisle, take a step back and think about what might be at stake.