The Nile River, the longest river in the world, stretches over 6,800 kilometers from south to north before emptying into the Mediterranean Sea. Serving as a lifeline for 11 countries in northeastern Africa, the Nile River has been a critical freshwater resource for millions over thousands of years, supporting irrigation, drinking water, fishing, and hydroelectric power. The river is now regulated by several dams, the most significant of which is the newly built Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The geopolitical tensions surrounding GERD have raised global awareness, highlighting the critical importance of water diplomacy and resources’ management. Here’s what you need to know.
What is the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)?
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), located in the Blue Nile tributary in Ethiopia, is going to be the largest hydroelectric power plant in Africa once it is fully completed. In March, 2024, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) was 95% complete, along with its reservoir formed to accumulate water. GERD is 1600 m wide and 145 m high, making it about the same size as the Golden Gate Bridge.
Construction on the $4.2 billion dam started in April 2011. Currently, four of the thirteen hydroelectric generators are already in operation. As of now, Ethiopia has commenced the filling of the reservoir, raising hopes for energy production. The problem is that this has sparked concerns among downstream nations, particularly Sudan and Egypt.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
Why Does Ethiopia Need GERD?
With the needs of resolving water shortages and accessing reliable energy sources, GERD aims to transform Ethiopia’s energy landscape. It will relieve the country’s acute energy shortage and to export electricity to neighboring countries. The dam is expected to generate 5 GW of electricity, which is 2.5 times the capacity of the Hoover Dam. The Ethiopian government believes it will double the country’s electricity output and drive development. It aims to provide electricity to 30% of Ethiopia’s population, as currently half of the country’s 127 million people live without power.
Why is the GERD Controversial?
Historically, Egypt has utilized its extensive diplomatic connections and the colonial-era 1929 and 1959 agreements to block major infrastructure projects on the Nile’s tributaries, effectively preventing Ethiopia from using the river’s waters. The conflict escalated when Ethiopia began constructing the dam on the Blue Nile in 2011.
Egypt’s foreign ministry claimed that “Ethiopia’s unilateral measures are considered a disregard for the interests and rights of the downstream countries and their water security”. They estimate that a 2% reduction in Nile water—around 1.6 billion gallons—could lead to the loss of approximately 200,000 acres of irrigated land.
The Nile River is a lifeline for countries in northeastern Africa. GERD raises concerns among downstream countries about reduced water access and water shortages. 107 million Egyptians rely on the River Nile for fresh water, and Sudan, with a population of 48 million people, is also heavily reliant on water from the Nile.
Ethiopia, however, argued that hydropower from the dam will provide affordable electricity to neighboring countries, including Sudan, South Sudan, Kenya, Djibouti and Eritrea. Theoretically, the GERD can also help regulate the Blue Nile’s flow, reducing Sudan’s vulnerability to flooding.
Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam with The High Aswan Dam. The Blue Annotated Line is the river flow.
Credit: Google Map
What’s Happened Recently?
As completion nears, Egypt has shifted its focus to securing a political agreement over the timetable for filling the GERD’s reservoir and managing it during droughts.
The most recent escalation occurred in early September when Ethiopia rejected Egypt’s “unfounded allegations” in a letter to the UN Security Council. Egypt claimed that Ethiopia violated international law by filling the dam without agreements from downstream countries.In response, tensions rose further when Egypt strengthened military ties with Somalia and Eritrea, two nations that also have strained relations with Ethiopia. These moves suggest that Egypt is not only addressing the GERD conflict diplomatically but also bolstering its regional alliances, potentially as a counterbalance to Ethiopia’s growing influence.
What will the impacts of the GERD be?
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) raises multiple environmental concerns, particularly affecting the Nile’s ecology and local biodiversity. One major concern is the disruption of the river’s seasonal flooding cycle, which plays a crucial role in maintaining wetlands, supporting wildlife, and sustaining agricultural lands. Without these natural floods to flush out human and agricultural waste, water pollution could increase, threatening both ecosystems and human populations downstream. Additionally, the dam will block the silt and sediment that once flowed downstream, preventing the soil enrichment and the delta expansion. Without this sediment replenishment, the delta is shrinking, exacerbating the risks of coastal erosion and reducing agricultural productivity in the region.
The construction of the dam has faced criticism from indigenous community leaders for being non-participatory and benefiting elite interests, which further sharpens tensions among local communities. The Gumuz community, a historically marginalized group, has been particularly affected, with over 20,000 farmers will be displaced once the dam is completed. Resettlement efforts, which began in 2013, have intensified fears of land annexation by other ethnic groups, highlighting long-standing historical grievances and contributing to a cycle of conflict and distrust.
What are the lessons from GERD?
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project highlights the complexities of balancing hydroelectric development, environmental sustainability, and social equity in cross-boundary water systems like the Nile Basin. The tensions among Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt underscore the urgent need for effective negotiation and cooperation to manage shared water resources. Holistically, the GERD serves as a reminder that while such large-scale projects can drive development and improve energy access, they require careful evaluations and mitigations on the geopolitical and environmental costs. GERD is poised to become a landmark infrastructure project in Ethiopia and across Africa, playing a pivotal role in the continent’s renewable energy transition and expanding electricity access.