How Much Development is Too Much? Depends on Who You Ask.

“It’s not just a river,” it is an economy and culture for 70 million people in Southeast Asia. That is how Courtney Weatherby sees the Mekong River. Over the Mekong’s 2,610 miles, it has many different things: culture, tourist attractions, and drinking water.

Over the Mekong’s 2,610 miles, it is also a fishery, source of hydroelectricity, and irrigation for agricultural products. While the Mekong may seem far away to most people, it is a major source of freshwater fish globally. It is also an important regional source of hydroelectricity. The consequences of developing dams on the Mekong will be felt globally.

Map of Mekong River Basin

Map of Mekong River Basin

 

“It was actually an academic paper” that jump started Courtney Weatherby’s interest, she explained with a chuckle. Courtney was studying abroad in Beijing in the 2010s while China’s environmental record “was hitting the fan.” It prompted a period of intense discussion about China’s impact on climate change and pollution. Courtney now works as a Research Analyst and Deputy Director at the Washington D.C. based Stimson Center. The center hosts the Mekong Policy Project, which analyzes the geopolitical situation in the Mekong. Courtney and her colleagues are working to raise awareness of the dam impacts regionally and globally and assess policy solutions.

Impacts and Interests of Development

In 1995, the Mekong River Commission (MRC) was developed to support sustainable river development by Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam, but not Myanmar or China which are not members. The Commission reviews development projects to assess benefits and concerns. The Commission positions the Mekong region well according to Courtney. Yet, of the three dams it has reviewed, there has been a noticeable decline in the quality of review. Experts like Courtney fear that the Commission’s commitment to quality is fading over time, which poses a threat to the river and the communities that depend on it. 

China controls the faucet of the dam as the country at the head of the river, but Laos is manipulating water levels and pressure through their 16 dams. Over her career, Courtney watched the conversation shift from where each country sits along the river, to how each country’s development projects impacts.

Laos has recently seen the consequences of a lack of information provided to communities and improper development. In July 2018, the Xe Pian Xe-Namnoy dam in Laos near the Sekong River, one of the most important Mekong River tributaries, collapsed. The ensuing flood killed 49 people and caused long-term property damage for 7,000 people. The dam was rebuilt, but the government advised villagers not to return for fear the dam would break again. Despite its poor track record, Laos continued to develop new dams on the Mekong River. 

The Mekong River could power 23 million homes based on the dams’ energy production. The Mekong River provides 70% of Laos’s energy, including energy exports, and significant energy for other countries along the river. Laos is slowly becoming the “battery of Southeast Asia,” by exporting hydropower to other countries.

Development on the Mekong is riddled with irony. A new dam in Laos will impact Thailand, which is just downstream, but that has not stopped the developer, which is Thai owned, from building it. These investments raise concerns about hydro-diplomacy, and the muddled interests of each country. 

But what Courtney made clear is that hydro-diplomacy depends both on positioning along the river and each country’s impact, not just one. 

Costs of Dams Versus the Benefit

According to Courtney, the Mekong is a global common good because it is “the world’s most productive freshwater fishery.”

But that may change as many fish species are gone and remaining fish are harder to find because of the dams. Most of the fish disappeared after the Xayaburi dam in Laos began operating in 2019. Fishers are concerned that there will be no fish in the future, rendering their jobs obsolete. Yet, Courtney has still found fish from the Mekong river in American grocery stores.

The Mekong River at Luang Prabang

The Mekong River at Luang Prabang, Laos

 

These fisheries are essential to the economic welfare of communities, but they are under threat. The profits from energy production on the river go almost exclusively to the government and developer, but the profits from fishing go to the communities along the river who catch the fish and prepare it. Even if the economic benefits are local, they add up to a significant contribution to many nation’s GDPs. Fish products from the Mekong make up about 12% of Cambodian, 7% of Laotian, 3.1% of Thai, and 1.8% of Vietnamese GDPs. With diminishing fish populations, the GDPs are expected to fall and communities will need to find new industries. 

An Upstream Battle for Solutions

The Mekong Dam Monitor, the Stimson Center project Courtney works on, began as a way to promote transparency by using available dam activity reports, satellite technologies, and downstream sensing to piece together a picture of river activity. Because it uses almost real time data, it allows for data-driven conversations and negotiations within the region and MRC about dam development and water usage. 

While the Commission and Courtney’s work both focus on data transparency, they are bound to different expectations. The Commission reports diligently on what member countries allow it to disclose, meanwhile Courtney’s work started from an interest in unreported Mekong River activities that continue to be secretive. China and other countries view dam activity as a state secret. To get around that, non-governmental organizations like the Stimson Center have started to create independent data sets. While China’s residents were growing concerned over environmental impact during her study abroad, Courtney stressed how little concern there seemed to be for the international impacts of China’s activities and inhibiting transparency.

The gap between the technical experts and the communities that need to act on that information isolates the different interest groups. China’s data availability is one of the biggest hurdles to accessibility. There have been “significant steps by China, still insufficient steps, but significant steps forward” to make data more accessible, but projects like the Mekong Dam Monitor continue to be necessary. 

Courtney excitedly told me how the project began as a monitor to oversee dam activity, but has since also grown to include early warnings for communities. Now, when river levels on the Mekong are projected to rise or fall by half a meter, the monitor issues community alerts to enable community action such as moving livestock, preparing crops, and changing fishing itineraries. 

Global Connections

The lack of data transparency has exacerbated tensions because there is no evidence to validate concerns about river level changes and the impact of downstream fishing, agriculture, and livelihoods. Lower basin countries continue to regularly criticize and blame Chinese hydropower development for its downstream impacts. China maintains that its development has a negligible impact on the river itself. As China and Laos, and other countries, continue to develop the river, tensions continue to build.

“The Mekong region is in better hands than many other transboundary river basins” Courtney said half optimistically. Water can be a powerful source of geopolitical tensions. The work of Courtney and the Stimson Center offers a model for other international natural resources under threat from persistent development. What becomes apparent is that transparency and cooperation are essential to good governance. 

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