Reprinted from its publication in Climate & Capital Media.
“Current agriculture policy is destroying America’s health on every level.”
That’s Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaking in a campaign video for Donald Trump outside the USDA shortly before the 2024 presidential election.
Trump had just anounced that he would choose Kennedy to run the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), which oversees the Food and Drug administration (FDA). This appointment would give Kennedy huge influence over agriculture.
Now, as Trump returns to the White House, having won overwhelming support from Midwestern farmers, he and Kennedy have both outlined policies that could profoundly impact US agriculture – but in very different ways.
Trump’s immigration and tariff plans threaten US farmers
Trump promises heavy tariffs and mass deportation of immigrants. Kennedy says he hopes to “Make America Healthy Again” by reforming modern agricultural practices, such as reducing the use of pesticides and corn syrup.
Trump’s deportation plan ignores how deeply US agriculture relies on migrant labor. Some 70% of agricultural workers are immigrants, 41% of whom are undocumented. In an industry already struggling with labor shortages, mass deportation of undocumented workers would worsen the problem.
With fewer people available to harvest crops, it becomes more difficult to harvest everything that is planted, leading to decreasing crop yields. Higher labor and food costs would likely boost inflation. Despite campaigning on a promise of lower grocery prices, Trump has offered no plan to supplement this lost labor force.
Trump hurt farmers in his first term
Trump’s proposed tariffs, meanwhile, would undercut demand for US agricultural products abroad – just as they did last time he was president.
Soon after the 2016 election, Trump initiated a trade war with China by imposing tariffs primarily on technological goods, steel, and aluminum. China responded with tariffs on American soybeans, among other goods.
US soybean exports to China plummeted, as a result, by nearly 75% from $12.3 billion in 2017 to $3.1 billion in 2018. China did not wait for tariffs to be lifted: when US products became more expensive, China turned to Brazil for cheaper soybeans. American soybean farmers faced declining incomes, rising production costs, debts, and business failures. Now, all that could happen again.
Meanwhile, Kennedy announced that he intends to cut pesticide use and make agriculture more sustainable, though he has outlined few specifics. Kennedy asserts that Americans shouldn’t “pollute our bodies the same way we pollute the soil” in that campaign video.
Kennedy targets RoundUp, but offers them no plan to stop using it
Specifically, Kennedy cites glyphosates, the active ingredient in RoundUp, the most common pesticide used by US farmers who don’t use organic or regenerative practices. Monsanto designed Roundup to kill vegetation other than specific crops, which have been genetically modified to withstand pesticides (Aptly, it calls them “RoundupReady” crops).
In recent years, glyphosates have been linked to lasting nervous system damage and increased occurrences of non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, resulting in numerous lawsuits. Despite the risk, industrial farmers argue that glyphosates are simple, cheap, and effective and that, without them, costs of pesticides would rise and yields would decline as crops are choked out by weeds.
Kennedy envisions farmers being environmental stewards, prioritizing the health of soil and water to maintain the health of foods, people, and the larger ecosystem. However, he has not yet laid out a plan to protect farmers if they make the transition from industrial to regenerative agriculture, which requires resources and time. Such a transition can take at least three years, and maybe more, as it takes time to restore organic nutrients to depleted soil.
Labor shortages and high tariffs would cut farmer revenue – and hike prices
As Trump’s immigration and tariff policies deny farmers an ample workforce and threaten profits, he and Kennedy have offered farmers no support, infrastructure, or incentives to adjust to Kennedy’s restructuring of farm management strategies and sustainable farming methods and reduced pesticide use.
Adopting Kennedy’s approach will take time and money, which will be in short supply if farmers are facing labor shortages and high tariffs that cut into their productivity and profits.
Combined, Trump and Kennedy are unwittingly crafting a policy nightmare for US farmers. It’s unclear whether farmers will be able to adapt, much less benefit. The health of the US agriculture industry is at risk.
Trump and Kennedy don’t seem to understand or, at this point, even care about how their policies will impact farmers. Some of the very people who voted so reliably for Trump could, as a result, lose everything, just as they did during Trump’s first term. The collapse of the US agriculture industry would be damaging not just for farmers, but for all Americans.