Category Archives: False Claims

Blog posts discussing stories based on claims which we have verified to be false.

The Real “Fake News”

The following is a blog post that Eni Mustafaraj has recently published in The Spoke. We reproduce it here with permission.

Fake news has always been with us, starting with The Great Moon Hoax in 1835. What is different now is the existence of a mass medium, the Web, that allows anyone to financially benefit from it.

Etymologists typically track the change of a word’s meaning over decades, sometimes even over centuries. Currently, however, they find themselves observing a new president and his administration redefine words and phrases on a daily basis. Case in point: “fake news.” One would have to look hard to find an American who hasn’t heard this phrase in recent months. The president loves to apply it as a label to news organizations that he doesn’t agree with.

But right before its most recent incarnation, the phrase “fake news” had a different meaning. It referred to factually incorrect stories appearing on websites with names such as DenverGuardian.com or TrumpVision365.com that mushroomed in the weeks leading up to the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election. One such story—”FBI agent suspected in Hillary email leaks found dead in apparent murder-suicide”—was shared more than a half million times on Facebook, despite being entirely false. The website that published it, DenverGuardian.com, was operated by a man named Jestin Coler, who, when tracked down by persistent NPR reporters after the election, admitted to being a liberal who “enjoyed making a mess of the people that share the content”. He didn’t have any regrets.

Why did fake news flourish before the election? There are too many hypotheses to settle on a single explanation. Economists would explain it in terms of supply and demand. Initially, there were only a few such websites, but their creators noticed that sharing fake news stories on Facebook generated considerable pageviews (the number of visits on the page) for them. Their obvious conclusion: there was a demand for sensational political news from a sizeable portion of the web-browsing public. Because pageviews can be monetized by running Google ads alongside the fake stories, the response was swift: an industry of fake news websites grew quickly to supply fake content and feed the public’s demand. The creators of this content were scattered all over the world. As BuzzFeed reported, a cluster of more than 100 fake news websites was run by individuals in the remote town of Ceres, in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.

How did the people in Macedonia manage to spread their fake stories on Facebook and earn thousands of dollars in the process? In addition to creating a cluster of fake news websites, they also created fake Facebook accounts that looked like real people and then had these accounts subscribe to real Facebook groups, such as “Hispanics for Trump” or “San Diego Berniecrats”, where conversations about the election were taking place. Every time the fake news websites published a new story, the fictitious accounts would share them in the Facebook groups they had joined. The real people in the groups would then start spreading the fake news article among their Facebook followers, successfully completing the misinformation cycle. These misinformation-spreading techniques were already known to researchers, but not to the public at large. My colleague Takis Metaxas and I discovered and documented one such techniqueused on Twitter all the way back in the 2010 Massachusetts Senate election between Martha Coakley and Scott Brown.

There is an important takeaway here for all of us: fake news doesn’t become dangerous because it’s created or because it is published; it becomes dangerous when members of the public decide that the news is worth spreading. The most ingenious part of spreading fake news is the step of “infiltrating” groups of people who are most susceptible to the story and will fall for it.  As explained inthis news article, the Macedonians tried different political Facebook groups, before finally settling on pro-Trump supporters.

Once “fake news” entered Facebook’s ecosystem, it was easy for people who agreed with the story and were compelled by the clickbait nature of the headlines to spread it organically. Often these stories made it to the Facebook’s Trending News list. The top 20 fake news stories about the election received approximately 8.7 million views on Facebook, 1.4 million more views than the top 20 real news stories from 19 of the major news websites (CNN, New York Times, etc.), as an analysis by BuzzFeed News demonstrated. Facebook initially resisted the accusation that its platform had enabled fake news to flourish. However, after weeks of intense pressure from media and its user base, it introduced a series of changes to its interface to mitigate the impact of fake news. These include involving third-party fact-checkers to assign a “Disputed” label to posts with untrue claims, suppressing posts with such a label (making them less visible and less spreadable) and allowing users to flag stories as fake news.

It’s too early to assess the effect these changes will have on the sharing behavior of Facebook users. In the meantime, the fake news industry is targeting a new audience: the liberal voters. In March, the fake quote “It’s better for our budget if a cancer patient dies more quickly,” attributed to Tom Price, the Secretary of Health and Human Services, appeared on a website titled US Political News, operated by an individual in Kosovo. The story was shared over 80,000 times on Facebook.

Fake news has always been with us, starting with The Great Moon Hoax in 1835. What is different now is the existence of a mass medium, the Web, that allows anyone to monetize content through advertising. Since the cost of producing fake news is negligible, and the monetary rewards substantial, fake news is likely to persist. The journey that fake news takes only begins with its publication. We, the reading public who share these stories, triggered by headlines engineered to make us feel outraged or elated, are the ones who take the news on its journey. Let us all learn to resist such sharing impulses.

False and True rumors look very differently on TwitterTrails

News of Turkish airplane shooting down a Russian one over the Turkish-Syrian border has dominated the news and the social media lately. We investigated the rumor within hours after it appeared (24 Nov. 2015) and you can see the ressults of the analysis here: http://twittertrails.wellesley.edu/~trails/stories/investigate.php?id=462776628

This was not the first time a rumor of this kind emerged. About a month and a half ago (10 Oct. 2015) an identical rumor had emerged. We had investigated that rumor too and you can see the results of our anaysis here: http://twittertrails.wellesley.edu/~trails/stories/investigate.php?id=134661966

Russian jet downing rumors

As you can see, based on the crowd’s reaction to the rumors, TwitterTrails was able to determine that the October rumor was false while the November one was true. The false rumor did not spread much and had a lot of skeptical tweets questioning its validity. On the other hand, the true rumor spread much higher and in terms of skepticism was undisputed.

Our understanding of the way the “wisdom of the crowd” works is that, when unbiased, emotionally cool observers see a rumor that seems suspicious, they usually react in one of two ways: They either do not retweet it, reducing its spread, or they may respond questioning the validity of the rumor, resulting in higher skepticism.

Continue reading False and True rumors look very differently on TwitterTrails

Twitter’s increasing doubts about the Germanwings cell phone video

On March 31, 2015, at around 1 PM eastern time (9 PM in Germany), German news outlet Bild posted an article claiming they had received a cell phone video of the final moments of the Germanwings flight, which was crashed by the co-pilot in the French Alps.  Bild writes (in their English translation):

Paris – A video emerged from on-board Germanwings flight 4U9525. German newspaper BILD and French magazine „Paris Match“ were able to view it.

– Video shows last seconds of death flight 4U9525, BILD

Paris Match, the French magazine which also claimed to see the video, describes it (from their English translation):

Its origin – a cell phone – was clear.  The scene was so chaotic that it was hard to identify people, but the sounds of the screaming passengers made it perfectly clear that they were aware of what was about to happen to them.  One can hear cries of “My God” in several languages.  Metallic banging can also be heard more than three times, perhaps of the pilot trying to open the cockpit door with a heavy object.  Towards the end, after a heavy shake, stronger than the others, the screaming intensifies.  Then nothing.

– EXCLUSIVE: THE FINAL MOMENTS BEFORE THE CRASH, Paris Match

Neither organization posted the video, but rather descriptions of what the video showed.

When @cnnbrk posted the story, it was retweeted over 500 times, and the conversation began to pick up steam on Twitter.  However, not all Twitter users were convinced, even before reports began to spread that French officials were denying the existence of this video.  Continue reading to learn about how TwitterTrails allows users to trace the increasing doubt about the Germanwings cell phone video.

Continue reading Twitter’s increasing doubts about the Germanwings cell phone video

According to the crowd, Putin’s motorcade shape was a hoax

Twittertrails is studying the propagation of rumors on Twitter. It will give you evidence about how the Twitter audience reacts to a rumor and whether the audience believes the rumor is a hoax or not. Its method of measuring the skepticism of the audience is a little more sophisticated than counting retweets, however. In fact, the rumor may get a huge head start, almost 11,000 retweets, but if they all came from the same source, they will not count as much on the skepticism level.

Let us demonstrate the skepticism level with an example. The twittertrails.com user asks the system to retrieve all tweets containing the terms “putin motorcade”, and the rest are computed automatically in a few minutes.

The “Putin Motorcade Shape” Story

A few days ago, a funny rumor appeared, that Putin’s motorcade was shaped as, well, you’ll see in the accompanying picture:

putin-propagation

The originating tweet who broke the story received almost 11,000 retweets! One of the reasons for that amazing count that any marketer would love, was that the account owner is a member of several groups with different political, ethnic and financial identities. Looking into the timeline graph, however, one can see that he was not the first to write about it. The first relevant tweet came several days before his post, by an Ukranian Euromaidan account.

Continue reading According to the crowd, Putin’s motorcade shape was a hoax

Plane in the Sea Near Canary Islands

rafaleonortega
The tweet posted by @rafaleonortega about a plane in the sea (click to go to the tweet).

On March 27, 2014, at 10:53 AM, @rafaleonortega tweeted “Imagen del avión en el mar en estos momentos en Telde, Gran Canaria,” or, in English, “There is a plane in the sea right now in Telde, Canary Islands.” This immediately incited panic (occurring  only a few weeks after Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 disappeared), and thousands of users began posting about the plane in the sea on Twitter. But did a plane land in the water off the coast of the Canary Islands? We can use the Trails system to help answer that question.

Explore this story with the Trails system!

Continue reading Plane in the Sea Near Canary Islands